RESERVOIR OPERATION THROUGH OBJECTIVE TRADE-OFFS1

ABSTRACT: Water resource development has progressed to the stage where various human factors are now being considered in reservoir design and operation. The introduction of human factor objectives complicates the problem since they are noncommensurate with other objectives and they are difficult to identify quantitatively. Some of the problems that now arise concern the proper methods for consideration of several different, sometimes subjectively identified, objectives in reservoir planning. The classical systems analysis approach to decision making for multiple objective problems is outlined and the inherent difficulties associated with multiple objectives and subjective estimates are identified. Techniques being used in reservoir design and operation are reviewed and discussed. An alternate technique for considering noncommensurate, subjectively identified, objectives, which relates the objectives in terms of real trade-off costs and eliminates the need for a priori estimates of objective worth is then presented. The method is illustrated with three examples, including a reservoir operation problem and a cooling tower design problem.     

WATER QUALITY MODELING OF ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURAL SCENARIOS IN THE U.S. CORN BELT1

ABSTRACT: Simulated water quality resulting from three alternative future land‐use scenarios for two agricultural watersheds in central Iowa was compared to water quality under current and historic land use/land cover to explore both the potential water quality impact of perpetuating current trends and potential benefits of major changes in agricultural practices in the U.S. Corn Belt. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to evaluate the effect of management practices on surface water discharge and annual loads of sediment and nitrate in these watersheds. The agricultural practices comprising Scenario 1, which assumes perpetuation of current trends (conversion to conservation tillage, increase in farm size and land in production, use of currently‐employed Best Management Practices (BMPs)) result in simulated increased export of nitrate and decreased export of sediment relative to the present. However, simulations indicate that the substantial changes in agricultural practices envisioned in Scenarios 2 and 3 (conversion to conservation tillage, strip intercropping, rotational grazing, conservation set‐asides and greatly extended use of best management practices (BMPs) such as riparian buffers, engineered wetlands, grassed waterways, filter strips and field borders) could potentially reduce current loadings of sediment by 37 to 67 percent and nutrients by 54 to 75 percent. Results from the study indicate that major improvements in water quality in these agricultural watersheds could be achieved if such environmentally‐targeted agricultural practices were employed. Traditional approaches to water quality improvement through application of traditional BMPs will result in little or no change in nutrient export and minor decreases in sediment export from Corn Belt watersheds.     

Acid rain in Asia

Acid rain has been an issue of great concern in North America and Europe during the past several decades. However, due to the passage of a number of recent regulations, most notably the Clean Air Act in the United States in 1990, there is an emerging perception that the problem in these Western nations is nearing solution. The situation in the developing world, particularly in Asia, is much bleaker. Given the policies of many Asian nations to achieve levels of development comparable with the industrialized world—which necessitate a significant expansion of energy consumption (most derived from indigenous coal reserves)—the potential for the formation of, and damage from, acid deposition in these developing countries is very high. This article delineates and assesses the emissions patterns, meteorology, physical geology, and biological and cultural resources present in various Asian nations. Based on this analysis and the risk factors to acidification, it is concluded that a number of areas in Asia are currently vulnerable to acid rain. These regions include Japan, North and South Korea, southern China, and the mountainous portions of Southeast Asia and southwestern India. Furthermore, with accelerated development (and its attendant increase in energy use and production of emissions of acid deposition precursors) in many nations of Asia, it is likely that other regions will also be affected by acidification in the near future. Based on the results of this overview, it is clear that acid deposition has significant potential to impact the Asian region. However, empirical evidence is urgently needed to confirm this and to provide early warning of increases in the magnitude and spread of acid deposition and its effects throughout this part of the world.     

A New Modus Operandi for the Agricultural Economics Profession

Agricultural economics has, until the 1990s, enjoyeda reputation for relevance and usefulness to theagri-food industry and policy-makers. Thatreputation has been jeopardized by a growinginfatuation with models and quantification, and aconcomitant underemphasis placed on many complexproblems and issues of society. An illustrativeexample is explored, using agriculturalactivity-related damage to the natural resourcebase, environment and ecology. Agriculturaleconomists are urged to respond by broadening theirterms of reference and joining forces with otherdisciplines.     

低剂量丙烯酰胺多世代持续暴露对秀丽隐杆线虫的损伤作用

论文研究了丙烯酰胺(acrylamide,AA)低剂量多代持续暴露对模式生物秀丽隐杆线虫(Caenorhabditis elegans,C.elegans)的发育、生殖、寿命和捕食行为能力的影响。将线虫暴露于不同剂量水平的AA中,检测对当代线虫的发育周期、后代数量、寿命和捕食行为的影响,结果显示,1.0 mmol·L~(-1)AA水平可诱发当代线虫发育周期延长和后代数量减少(P 0.05),0.05mmol·L~(-1)和0.001 mmol·L~(-1)水平可分别诱发捕食行为能力下降和寿命缩短(P0.05)。进一步选取对当代线虫不产生明显损伤效应的AA剂量,将线虫进行多代持续暴露处理,结果显示,0.01 mmol·L~(-1)AA分别可在第2代g1和第3代g2诱发发育周期延长和后代数量减少(P0.05),0.005 mmol·L~(-1)AA可在第2代g1引起摄食行为能力下降,0.0001 mmol·L~(-1)(约7μg·L~(-1),低于推测人的平均AA暴露水平)的AA在第2代g1即可诱发寿命缩短(P0.05)。以上结果表明AA生物学毒性可以在后代间积累,极低剂量AA多代持续暴露仍可诱发生物学损伤。     

国土空间规划“三条控制线”划定的沈阳实践与优化探索

国务院机构改革前,生态保护红线、永久基本农田、城镇开发边界三条控制线分别由国家不同部委主导划定,存在划定过程统筹协同不够、划定结果交叉重叠、实施管理困难等问题。国务院机构改革后,自然资源部负责建立国土空间规划体系,要求在资源环境城镇能力和国土空间开发适宜性评价基础上,自上而下逐级统筹划定落实三条控制线。本文总结了沈阳作为试点城市,在三条控制线划定中的矛盾冲突表现与成因,构建三条控制线与生态、农业、城镇三大空间关系,建立管控体系与调整规则,并阐释在市级权限范围内的调整优化做法。研究发现：三条控制线存在空间交叉重叠、功能难以区分的现象,主要是因为基本农田承担了限制城市空间蔓延的使命,指标不允许跨行政区调整导致部分基本农田不得不安排到城镇内部;由于概念界定不同导致部分城市公园被划入生态保护红线;生态保护红线内的部分耕地被先期划为永久基本农田。提出国土空间规划背景下三条控制线优化建议：一是突出既是政策线又是技术线的特征,自上而下和自下而上相结合划定;二是国家自上而下对基本农田调整政策和制度进行创新;三是建立事权分级管理机制,合理预留地方事权弹性。     

多模式集成方法在安徽地区PM2.5预报中的应用研究

分别采用算术平均、权重平均、多元线性回归和神经网络的集成方法,对3种空气质量模式在安徽地区2017年2月-2018年2月PM_2.5预报结果进行集成释用.结果表明：各模式和订正产品的预报值与实况值之间均能达到显著相关,相较于WRF-Chem,多元线性回归的均方根误差（RMSE）下降了21.7%,归一化平均偏差（NMB）下降了6%,且在16个地市中NMB均下降至-25%~25%之间;从不同时次的预报效果来看,在3个代表性城市（淮北、合肥和芜湖）,多元线性回归均能大幅度降低RMSE和NMB,但从时间和空间效果来看,其对于提升预报值与实况值之间的相关性方面,略差于权重平均的集成方法;多元线性回归方法对于重污染天气PM_2.5预报评分（TS）最高,为0.46.该方法能较为有效地提升不同模式的预报效果,可为重污染天气预报预警提供参考.     

基于GIS的矿井瓦斯赋存规律多影响因素智能分析技术

为了提高矿井瓦斯赋存规律分析的准确性和智能化程度,提出了多因素共同作用下瓦斯原始数据筛选和瓦斯赋存规律分析的一种智能化技术。介绍了如何利用地理信息（GIS）技术建立瓦斯地质空间数据模型,结合计算机编程实现了对大量复杂的原始数据的智能分析、处理和筛选。并实现了瓦斯赋存规律多种主控因素情况下多元回归的自动智能化分析,进而使得瓦斯赋存规律模型可以在取得新的原始数据后进行动态、智能的更新。为煤矿工作人员快速、准确的掌握地矿井瓦斯赋存规律提供了先进的手段和工具。     

提高循环水浓缩倍数节水减排方案探讨

针对川西北某轻烃厂循环冷却水水质的特点,拟采用无磷药剂配方将循环水浓缩倍数从3．0提高到5．0,并新增软水处理系统作为循环水补水,从而达到优化水质、节水减排的目的。针对浓缩倍数提高引起得的水质稳定难题提出相应的技术方案,最终达到改善水质,保护水环境,节水减排的效果。     

高活性絮凝剂产生菌群的构建、培养及应用研究

从筛选到的絮凝剂产生菌中构建出能比单一菌群产生更高絮凝活性的复合菌群——复合菌群1（BAFRT4＋CYGS1）．为降低复合菌群1的培养成本,尝试用啤酒废水替代葡萄糖作为培养基中的碳源和能源并获得成功．在优化培养条件下,复合菌群1所产MBF的絮凝活性达96.8％．复合菌群1所产MBF对靛蓝印染废水有良好的处理效果,最大CODCr去除率和脱色率分别达79．2％和87．6％．